ewcastle’s population gradually grew in the early 1800s and peaked in the years before the Civil War (Figure A-1).  An exodus from rural areas in general began after the Civil War and industrialization attracted workers to the cities and made possible large-scale farming in the Midwest.  Not until the 1970s – and continuing to this day – did rural areas begin to see significant growth. Map 1 shows housing in Newcastle as of 2002.

Figure A-1.  Newcastle Historic Population Change

Source: US Census

By 2000, there were 1,748 year-round residents in our town.  This ended two decades of significant growth.  Between 1980 and 2000, Newcastle’s population grew by more than 40% (521 residents). 

Recent trends suggest that the vast majority – if not all – of our town’s population increase has been the result of new people moving into the community.  In the 1990s, The Maine Department of Human Services estimated that Newcastle did not grow naturally (the number of births to Newcastle residents did not exceed the number of deaths of Newcastle residents).  In other words, all of our growth has been the result of new residents moving into town from elsewhere.

This trend was identified in our current Comprehensive Plan.  Between 1980 and 1988, an estimated 13 new residents were the result of natural increase.  This compared to 214 new residents that were the result of residents moving to Newcastle from elsewhere.

Compared with surrounding communities, Newcastle has been one of the faster growing in the region.  Newcastle grew by 13% between 1990 and 2000, which was slower than Alna and tied with Damariscotta (Table A-1).  Newcastle grew faster than Nobleboro, Edgecomb and LincolnCounty and grew significantly faster than the state as a whole.

Table A-1.  Relative Population Change, 1980 - 2000

Source: US Census

Steady growth is projected to continue through 2015.  The Maine State Planning Office projects that our town will have 2,050 residents in 2015 (Figure A-2).  This represents a growth rate similar to the 13% we grew in the 1990s, although the rate of growth is projected to decrease slightly towards 2015.

Figure A-2.  Newcastle Population Change, 1970 to 2015

Source: US Census, State Planning Office

SEASONAL POPULATION

Newcastle has a significant seasonal population.  In 2000, the US Census identified 121 housing units that were used seasonally (or 14% of the 880 total units in Newcastle).  The region’s recreational opportunities create a tremendous seasonal attraction for daytrips, vacations, and seasonal living.  Our town breaks this seasonal population into three categories:

·        Seasonal Residents.  Seasonal residents are those that live in the community for five, seven, or nine months of the year.  These residents function as year-round residents when they are in town – working, shopping, using town facilities and services, and generally participating in the community as year-round residents.  While no accurate count of this population is available, their importance as members of the community cannot be underestimated.

·        Summer Visitors.  Summer visitors are dedicated visitors that enjoy the amenities of the region nearly every weekend and for extended vacations.  These residents are dedicated to the community, but often work elsewhere and therefore don’t have the time to fully immerse themselves in the community.  Many of these residents are candidates to become seasonal residents once they retire.

·        Tourists.  This population is made up by vacationers and day-trippers that visit our community primarily between Memorial Day and Labor Day.  This population typically rents accommodations, although a significant number of this population fills the empty bedrooms of relatives and friends of year-round residents. 

On in-season weekends, we estimate that this seasonal population can add 1,000 people to the community.  During special occasions, this population can increase even further.  Many town facilities and services must be designed to meet this demand.

POPULATION BY TYPE

The Census classifies population in one of two categories – group quarters population and household population. 

·        The group quarters population includes those living in nursing homes, college dormitories, correctional facilities, and the like.  In 2000, the Census identified 30 residents living in group quarters in Newcastle.  These were likely the residents of Lincoln Home and Mobius House.

This population is not projected to grow significantly, although some growth is expected due to the attractiveness of the region for retirees and the presence of two health care centers in nearby Damariscotta and Boothbay.

·        The vast majority of Newcastle’s residents are considered by the Census to be the household population.  More than 98% of the town’s residents lived in households (1,718 of 1,748 in 2000). 

This household population lived in 724 households.  On average, each household in Newcastle had 2.37 residents.  This average size is the same as LincolnCounty and the state as a whole.

The Census classifies the household population as either a family household or a non-family household:

• Family households include all those with two or more related residents living together.  More than two-thirds of the households in Newcastle are family households (493 out of 724 total households).  Of these 493 family households, 207 were families with households with children less than 18 years of age.  These family households averaged 2.86 persons.

• Non-family households include all 1-person households and those with two or more unrelated persons living together.  Of the 231 non-family households, 191 were 1-person households (half of which were occupied by persons over 65 years).  These 1-person households account for 26% of all the households in Newcastle.  Newcastle’s non-family household population closely matches those of LincolnCounty and the state.

Household sizes have been steadily decreasing.  In 1980, the average size of a Newcastle household was 2.59 persons.  By 2000, it had reached 2.36 persons (Figure A-3). 

This trend towards smaller households is not unique to Newcastle.  Household sizes have been decreasing nationwide for the last 40 years.  Several reasons account for this trend, including a trend towards single-person and smaller households in the Baby Boom generation, the increased longevity of seniors, an increase in divorce rates, and the trend for younger couples to wait longer before starting families.

Figure A-3.  Average Household Size

Source: US Census, Newcastle Comp Plan Committee Projection

This decline in average household size is projected to continue, although at a slower rate.  By 2010, we project Newcastle’s average household size will have reached 2.20 persons. 

The implication of this trend towards smaller households is that it will take a larger number of housing units to house the same population.  In other words, even if Newcastle’s population stays the same between 2000 and 2010 (1,748 persons), we project a need for an additional 116 occupied housing units in town.

Finally, Newcastle’s households tend to be occupied by homeowners.  Of the 724 households in Newcastle, only 15% are occupied by renters – the remaining 85% are occupied by owners.  Statewide, approximately 30% of the households are occupied by renters.

Owner-occupied housing units tend to have larger average household sizes.  In 2000, owner-occupied houses averaged 2.44 persons per household, while renter-occupied houses averaged 2.06 persons per household. 

AGE

Newcastle’s population is relatively old.  In 2000, the median age of Newcastle residents was 44.8 years.  This was higher than the medians for LincolnCounty (42.6 years) and the state as a whole (38.6 years).

Nearly 28% of our population is under 25 years of age (TableA-2).  Those between 25 and 44 account for 23% of the town.  Another 31% is between 45 and 64 years, and those over 65 account for 19%.

Table A-2.  Age Profile, 2000

Source: US Census

Newcastle’s population has not grown consistently across all ages.  Between 1990 and 2000, there was a net loss of 5 residents under 45 years of age, and a net gain of 244 residents aged 45 and over (Table A-3).  Significant decreases were observed in the number of residents under 5 years and the number of residents 25 to 34 years.  Large increases were observed in the number of residents 45 to 54 years, 55 to 64 years, and 75 to 84 years.

Table A-3.  Newcastle Age Change, ’90 – ‘00

Source: US Census

The decrease in the population under 44 years suggests that younger families have not been moving to Newcastle in significant numbers.  The increase in population over 45 years is in part explained by the aging of the large baby boom generation (aged 35 to 54 in the 2000 US Census). 

The trend towards an older population is projected to continue as the baby boom generation grows older and young families have difficulty affording housing in Newcastle.

EDUCATION

Newcastle residents are well educated.  In 2000, 91% of the residents over 24 years had at least a high school diploma, and 45% of the residents had at least a college degree (Table A-4).

Table A-4.  Education Attainment (25+ years), 2000

Source: US Census

Residents in Newcastle have attained a higher level of formal education than residents in the county and state as a whole.  Significantly more Newcastle residents have at least a college degree, and Newcastle residents are less likely to not have a high school diploma. 

In recent decades, there has been a steady trend towards better-educated populations.  This trend is projected to continue in the future.

OCCUPATION

Of the employed residents that are over 16 years old, approximately 40% worked in managerial/professional positions in 2000.  About one-quarter of the employed population worked in sales/office occupations, and another 12% worked in service occupations (Table A-5).  Approximately one-quarter of those employed in Newcastle worked in more traditional blue-collar positions (construction, maintenance, production, transportation, and material moving).  Slightly more than 1% reported natural resource jobs were their primary occupation (forestry, farming, and fishing). 

Table A-5.  Occupation (16+ years), 2000

Source: US Census

Newcastle residents are more likely to be employed in managerial/professional occupations than the county or the state as a whole.  Natural resource-based jobs are more common in the county than in Newcastle, and in general the more traditional blue-collar jobs are more common in the county and the state.

The small number of residents employed in natural resource-based occupations is partly due to the seasonal nature of these jobs – many working the land or on the water have other primary sources of income.

Comparisons with previous US Census data are difficult because the US Census changed its occupation definitions for the 2000 Census.  Casual observation suggests that there are slightly more residents in professional/managerial jobs and slightly fewer residents in blue-collar jobs than there were in 1990.

INCOMES

In general, Newcastle residents have higher incomes.  In 1999, Newcastle’s median household income reached $43,000.  Approximately one-quarter of the households earned less than $25,000, and one-third earned between $25,000 and $50,000.  Nearly 20% of the households earned between $50,000 and $100,000.  More than 10% earned more than $100,000.

Table A-6.  Household Income in 1999

Source: US Census

Compared with the county and state, Newcastle residents had high incomes.  While relatively the same number of households earned between $15,000 and $75,000, significantly fewer Newcastle households earned less than $15,000 and significantly more households earned more than $100,000.  Newcastle’s median income was almost $5,000 higher than that for the county and state as whole.

It follows that Newcastle had fewer households living in poverty status than LincolnCounty and Maine.  In 2000, fewer than 125 individuals lived below poverty level in Newcastle.  This represented 7% of the town’s total population.  Of these, more than 20% were under 18 years, and approximately 25% were over 65 years.

In comparison, LincolnCounty had 10% and Maine had 11% of their populations below poverty level in 2000.  In general, the county and the state had larger numbers of children below the poverty level and fewer elderly below the poverty level than Newcastle. 

The number of families receiving aid to children has stayed the same in the last few years in Newcastle but has risen 14% in LincolnCounty and risen about 9% in the whole state.

ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS

1.      Moderating population growth, but decreases in average household size hide the amount of housing unit growth that will be needed to house the year-round population.

2.      Seasonal population has a significant impact on the town’s resources.

3.      Changing age profile might suggest a change in the type of services the community needs.

4.      Well-educated residents tend to have higher standards for their children’s educations, and therefore could demand more services in the school system. 

5.      Number of school-aged children has not increased at the same rate as the general population.  This trend is projected to continue.

house or apartment is more than just a shelter.  It represents security, privacy, health, community, and all the other things we associate with "home". It is a basic necessity of life.  Many argue that safe, affordable housing is a right that all Americans should enjoy.

Unfortunately, that is not always the case.  Rising housing costs can create affordable housing challenges for all Newcastle residents, and can have far reaching effects.  It can affect the town's ability to attract business.  It can determine whether the people who serve the community can afford to live in the community.  It can determine whether families remain in Newcastle from one generation to the next.

This chapter examines the supply and conditions of housing in Newcastle, considers its affordability and relations to local incomes, and analyzes its availability, especially for lower income households. 

HOUSING STOCK

In 2000, Newcastle had 880 housing units.  This represents a 17% increase in housing units from 1990 to 2000 (Table B-1).  Since 1970, the number of housing units in Newcastle has increased by more than two-thirds.  Housing unit growth has been relatively constant – the growth rates for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s range between 17% and 22%.

Table B-1.  Housing Unit Change, 1970 to 2000

Source: US Census

Compared with other communities in the region, Newcastle’s growth has been moderate.  While the number of housing units in Newcastle grew by 17% in the 1990s, those in Bristol grew by 27%, Nobleboro by 22%, and LincolnCounty as a whole grew by 19% (Table B-1).  Generally, the larger and more established communities of Wiscasset, Damariscotta, and Newcastle grew slower than the county average, while smaller interior and coastal communities added housing units at a faster rate. 

The Midcoast region, like the state as a whole, is heavily oriented towards seasonal tourism for its livelihood.  In that respect, understanding seasonal changes in populations and the demands that the changing population places on municipal services is critical for planning.

In 2000, Newcastle had 121 seasonal housing units (Table B-2).  This represented 14% of the town’s entire housing stock.  Between 1990 and 2000, seasonal housing grew faster than the growth rate for the town’s entire housing stock (21% to 17%). 

Table B-2.  Seasonal Housing Units, 1990 - 2000

Source: US Census

Compared with other communities in the region, Newcastle has a modest amount of seasonal housing (Table B-2).  Communities near the ocean and on large lakes tended to have larger amounts of seasonal housing, such as Bristol (45% seasonal), South Bristol (54%), and Nobleboro (35%).

Newcastle housing is primarily single-family units.  In 2000, 87% of all housing units were single-family units, 6% were multifamily units, and 7% were mobile homes.  These percentages have changed little in 30 years, although the number of mobile homes has increased modestly and the number of multi-family units has decreased modestly.  This distribution of housing type is very similar to the region as a whole. 

AGE OF HOUSING STOCK

Newcastle’s housing stock is relatively old (Table B-3).  Nearly 40% of the housing units were built before 1940.  Another 28% were built between 1940 and 1980.  The remaining one-third of the units were built since 1980. 

Table B-3.  Age of Housing Units

Source: US Census

HOUSING VALUE

In 1970, the median value of a housing unit in Newcastle was $14,700.  In 1980 this figure had increased to $45,900.  In 1990 it had reached $119,000.  By 2000, the median value of a housing unit in Newcastle had reached $132,100.

Table B-4.  Housing Value

Source: US Census

Newcastle’s housing is more expensive than housing in the county or state as a whole.  In 2000, Newcastle’s median housing unit cost one-third more than that of the state as a whole, and 10% more than those in LincolnCounty.  These percentages have remained relatively constant throughout the past two decades.

AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

The Maine State Housing Authority calculates its own affordability index based on whether a community’s median household income can afford to purchase that community’s median housing unit. 

Using this analysis, Newcastle’s median housing unit (which cost $190,000 in 2003) would be affordable to a household that made $66,928 per year (Table B-5).  Newcastle’s median household income in 2003 is estimated to be $46,964, or roughly $20,000 lower than would be needed to buy the median home in the community. 

Newcastle is not an affordable community according to MSHA’s affordability index.  In 2003, Newcastle had a 0.70 index rating (an affordability index of 1.0 or greater indicates that a community is affordable).  This is considered to be less affordable than LincolnCounty (0.74) and the state as a whole (0.81).

In the last several years, Newcastle’s housing has become less affordable.  In 2001, Newcastle’s affordability index was 0.84.  In 2002, it had dropped to 0.79.  And by 2003, it had reached 0.70.  The reason for this decline has been a combination of a median household income that was adjusted downward in 2002 as well as a large increase in the price of the median housing unit in 2003.

Table B-5.  Affordability Summary, 2003

Source: MaineState Housing Authority

Note: an affordability index greater than 1.0 indicates that a community is affordable.

* Boothbay Housing Market Area includes Boothbay, BoothbayHarbor, Bristol, South Bristol, Monhegan, Bremen, Damariscotta, Newcastle, and Nobleboro

** This is the calculated value of the home that could be afforded by a household earning the median income.

ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS

1.                  Location of most new housing has not been in the growth districts.  New housing has been split between seasonal housing along ocean and lake shores and full time residences in outlying areas as infill has been hard to do in the town centers.

2.                  Housing in Newcastle is not affordable to the family earning an average wage.  It is important to provide the ability for everyone to have some form of housing in Newcastle.

3.                  Almost all housing in Newcastle is single dwelling units.  Very few multiple dwelling units are available.  Multiple dwelling units are generally less expensive and are one way to create denser development in the growth districts.

4.                  There is very little housing for the elderly in an area where good health care is available.  With the multiple levels of health care available at the Miles complex, it would make sense to allow more housing for the elderly.

5.                  Very few modular or mobile homes exist in Newcastle.